Cycles within cycles.
I would like to see an animation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the 11 year solar cycle, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the 210 year Seuss/deVries cycle, and the grand solar cycles to see where, over the past 15,000 years,
1) their positive phases coincided,
2) their negative phases coincided,
but not only when the maxima and minima exactly coincide but when they sequentially overlap, ramping into or out of a general maximum or minimum, where and by how much they cancel each other, where they cause brief downward inflections on a long warming trend, a brief upward inflection on an overall downward trend, where they would create the fairly rare broad oscillation of temperature at a warming peak and less rare but broad oscillation of temperature across a cool period.
Since their relative and initial start periods are not known, they could be started randomly and run at the best guess for the maximum variation in amplitude for each and compare the graphical output to that of Greenland ice core temperature reconstruction over the past 10,000 years as long as it takes to generate the closest matches.
In addition, proxies could be used to determine the relative values of these five cycles at each of the 11 warm peaks in and the intervening cool periods and then use those as initial values and run each forward and backward over the 10,000 years corresponding to the current interglacial period.
These could then be compared to various proxies for temperature throughout the same period of time.
Some cycles that do or could modify the energy flow on earth vary in length from:
1. the orbital frequency of the solar system around the galactic center (230 million years),
2. the frequency of the oscillation of the solar system through the galactic plane (70 million years),
3. the frequency in the change of ellipticity of the earth’s orbit around the sun (~100,000 years),
4. the frequency in the changes of ellipticity of the orbits of the other planets around the sun, especially Saturn, Jupiter, and Venus,
5. the frequency of the change in earth’s axial tilt (41,000 years),
6. the frequency of the precession of the earth’s axis (23,000 years),
7. the frequency of a particular wobble, the name of which escapes me at the moment, in that precession,
8. the frequency of the grand solar cycle (since the Oort Minimum sometime around 1000AD over the past ~1000 years, the minima have been around 200 years apart)
9. the frequency of the Seuss/DeVries cycle (210 years)
10. the frequency of the AMO (40-80 years)
11. the frequency of the PDO (40-60 years)
12. the frequency in the rotation around the sun of Saturn (29.44 years) and Jupiter (11.87 years),
13. the frequency of the lunar nodal (18.6 years), axial (18.6 years), and apsidal (8.85 years) precessions,
14. the frequency of the solar cycle (around 11 years),
15. the frequency of the earth’s rotation around the sun (1 year),
16. the frequency of the change in length of day and night (6 months) and the degree of change by latitude,
17. the frequency of earth’s perihelion and aphelion (6 months apart)
18. the frequency of the lunar orbit (about 29 days)
19. the frequency of lunar apogee and perigee (about 2 weeks apart)
20. the rotational frequency of the earth (about 24 hours)
21. the latitude-dependent changing day/night lengths by hemisphere and land mass
When the positive cycles from above that have indisputable effects on warming and cooling come together in sync there is maximum warming, especially when they coincide with the positive phases of both the 11 year solar cycle and the centuries-long grand solar cycles and the solar system is at maximum height above or below the galactic plane. When their negative phases come together in synch there is maximum cooling, especially when they coincide with the negative phases of the 11 year solar cycle and the centuries-long grand solar cycle and the solar system passing through the galactic plane.
In addition, when thinking about the effects of tidal forces between earth, moon, and sun on earthquakes, about 6 months ago I looked to see the dates for when the earth was at perihelion and the moon at perigee and between the earth and the sun, making for the greatest tidal forces. I thought that maybe it would be sufficient to destabilize faults and cause an increase in earthquakes.
I looked up a chart of major earthquakes over the past century or so and started adding the numbers bracketing by a couple of months the date of the combined perihelion of the earth and the perigee of the moon at the high tide position.
There didn’t seem to be much difference from the monthly average until I narrowed the bracket to several weeks before and after the alignment and then the number of earthquakes appeared to bump up above the average.
I did not control for the position of longitude at the time of maximum alignment; for instance, was the Pacific region just beginning to rotate into position approaching maximum alignment or not?
And then I wondered if the portion of the earth with the most active volcanoes was in this orientation at a time of maximum tidal stress and minimum solar activity with greatly reduced solar magnetic field; would the combination of maximum tidal stress along with the nucleation in silica-rich magmas from increased cosmic radiation result in perhaps a mutually-reinforcing increase in both volcanic and earthquake activity?
But I have yet to do this.